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[越南] 南海争端:中国增加压力 越南经济损失巨大

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发表于 2020-7-16 09:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 che 于 2020-7-16 09:17 编辑
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6 e1 r6 Q3 p6 V# @6 _6 }https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-53421349
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比尔·黑顿 (Bill Hayton)  BBC新闻记者
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" s; z, |1 D- w) z' |  [# G2020年 7月 15日
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6 W) i. ?. u# k- |4 c越南最近由于被迫停止在南海的部分油气作业、解除合约,而不得不向两家国际石油公司支付至少10亿美元的赔偿金。而更多迹象显示,越南政府在南海遭受的经济损失可能远不止此。
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& w; B6 v: E( j; U一位知情的石油工业人士告诉BBC说,越南国家石油公司(Petro Vietnam)同意向西班牙国家石油公司(又:雷普索尔 Repsol)和阿联酋的阿布扎比穆巴达拉集团(简:穆巴达拉)支付“终结合约”和“赔偿”款项。西班牙国家石油公司在一份最新的新闻稿中 表示“无意证实或否认”上述款项和数字。不过,通过对这家公司的财政年度报表分析可见,的确有巨额数字入账。; Z" i3 p# ?& V" I  C+ @2 J' M
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南海对峙升温. D" \  ~- o4 |: O1 E$ [% @

6 K' v" l! Q& q( D1 A  e南海对峙局势近来有升温趋势。俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)近期也在中国方面压力下被迫暂停了帮助越南石油公司从事的海洋石油勘钻业务计划。据悉,中国海事巡逻船不断在俄罗斯石油公司准备勘钻的海域活动。除海巡船出没之外,美国和中国海军也几乎同时在南海分别举行了大规模的军事演习,让区域内国家进一步认识到两个大国在这一区域的战略竞争。一位曾有亚太地区多年工作经验的资深西方石油专家表示,他“从未见过南海海洋油气工业受到如此众多的政治干预”。
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% D% X/ m& ?4 V& R  h$ H3 r  a( A西班牙国家石油公司曾在这一地区业务规模较大, 至少对13个海上区块拥有勘钻和开采权。由于西班牙国家石油公司在中国区域的利益不多,因此一直作好了抵制中国压力的准备。这家石油公司所开发的两个油田争议最大,位于越南主张的专属经济区(EEZ)边缘,已进入了中国地图自1948年以来所主张的“九段线”区域内。* o% ^; Z; T- V* Q/ Y! E" C1 S

# ^% i( ~9 [% P: Z! j据悉,2017年7月,西班牙国家石油公司的合作伙伴,越南国家石油公司首次“勒令”前者停止在135-135/03区块的勘钻业务。随即,在2018年3月22日,西班牙国家石油公司被再度命令停止在07/03区块已经开始的“赤帝”(Ca Rong Do)油田钻井作业。西班牙公司当时被告知,那是越南政府在中国方面“极限压力”下,作出的“政治决定”。据悉,当时中国方面已经在海南岛沿海聚集了至少40艘船舰准备前往争议海区阻止继续钻井,并很可能造成争端升级情况。
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; U! D, E! x& P0 b3 \% ~3 E: T越南损失巨大8 ]* a+ ~3 M4 ]5 Q: Z/ }6 i/ J
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河内的“政治决定”直接造成了至少10亿美元的经济损失。一位资深业界知情人士告诉BBC说,河内买断西班牙和阿布扎比公司的油田开采权至少支付了8亿美元,而赔偿不少于2亿。对于越南国家财政来说,这是一笔不小的损失。2 |) o0 p& L9 L

, c1 ~+ C' w. O* m* r西班牙国家石油公司在2019年度的财政报告中通报了“在越南、阿尔及利亚和巴布亚新几内亚项目总损失7.86亿欧元”的讯息。在同一份报告中,西班牙国家石油公司也提到在越南的三家分公司损失5.86亿欧元。1 k- l1 W" w6 d; q1 z+ W6 m6 J

5 S% A& a/ u3 J2020年6月12日,西班牙国家石油公司在宣布退出07/03和135-136/03区块勘钻作业的公告中说,中止业务对公司财政“没有造成巨大影响”。尽管公司方面没有具体介绍“没有影响”的原因,但是这一表述至少显示,公司在上述数以亿计美元造价的项目中的损失已经得到某种程度的补偿。
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从事态发展看,中国阻止越南和以越南为基地的国际公司在南海开采油气资源的努力会继续下去。近日,已经在越南头顿(Vung Tau)港准备出海作业两个月的一个海上钻井平台也被告知取消作业计划。上述平台的拥有方是总部设在香港,注册于百慕大,在新加坡上市的来宝集团(Noble Corp)。据来宝集团表示,与越南政府签订的合同中包含了“提前终止作业”的付款条款。以此看来,越南政府很可能也需要向来宝集团支付数以百万计的赔偿金。8 J; h; A) J& E& j' q
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来宝集团的平台原计划出海作业于俄罗斯石油公司在南海的06-01区块,这一油田位于西班牙国家石油公司原有07-03区块偏北位置,也在中国所划定的“九段线”之内。越南公司过去18年来,一直在这一名为南昆山(Nam Con Son)盆地的海域钻井采油。从种种迹象看,中国现在觉得有能力阻止越南继续在这一地区开采作业。
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南海局势持续升温
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据报道,中国海警船“海警5402”号,七月初来到越南准备勘钻的海域,并被指在上述海域作出“挑衅性”动作。根据“南中国海新闻”(South China Sea News)推特用户所跟踪的船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据显示,上述中国海警船曾以15节的速度靠近到距离越南的“兰西”(Lan Tay)钻井平台。由于兰西钻台由俄罗斯石油公司运营,此前多数分析人士认为北京可能会因为不愿触动与莫斯科的关系而不会阻挠俄罗斯与越南的合作。从近来发展看,北京对俄罗斯和西方国家公司似乎已经一视同仁。
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  c2 J( F& C1 a2 M9 Y: ^2 O  F除欧洲、中东和俄罗斯石油公司之外,日本公司在越南的油气业务最近也开始谜团重重。日本出光兴产(Idemitsu)和帝国Inpex(Teikoku/Inpex)两大集团也是越南国家石油公司的合作伙伴。上述日本公司在越南的“金星”油气田(Sao Vang / Dai Nguyet)操作;上述油田正好位于中国划定的“九段线”上。出光兴产此前曾表示已经完成勘测作业,并希望能在2020年第三季度开始出产天然气。不过,出光兴产迄今仍保持低调,仍未公布具体细节。
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2 o' Z% C6 I1 `$ W9 z$ r帝国集团方面的油气作业也出现了问题。帝国当下正在应付一家英国伦敦注册公司的司法诉讼案。一家名为“玉石”(Jadestone)的英国注册公司起诉称,帝国4年前曾合约出售麾下的越南油气田,但是却“爽约”。目前有业界人士猜测,这家伦敦公司很可能幕后是日本政府;后者很可能希望能全面掌控争议地区油气田开采权,以便可以应对未来可能来自中国方面的压力。
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* D  R9 N- p* l6 }* K# R1 h多方分析人士指出,上述事件也是促使美国政府近日对南海发表声明的重要原因。在声明中,美国国务卿蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)一方面指责中国在南海的“霸凌”行为,一方面首度表示中国在南海的九段线领土领海声索“完全非法”。有分析认为,这一声明显示,美国将愿意帮助越南和相关国家保护海洋油气资源和抵御中国的干涉。中国驻美国大使馆则发表声明,指责美国南海声明是“完全不合理”的。不管美中双方如何理论,有一点似乎是确定的,未来有关南中国海的资源争夺将进一步激化。
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发表于 2020-7-16 09:53 | 显示全部楼层
是该敲打一下越猴了!!!
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发表于 2020-7-16 10:03 | 显示全部楼层
侧面反映出一些信息,有些可信度
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发表于 2020-7-16 15:38 | 显示全部楼层
“已进入了中国地图自1948年以来所主张的“九段线”区域内。” 越猴该打!
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发表于 2020-7-16 15:57 | 显示全部楼层
造了这么多战舰和海警船,派上用处了。
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发表于 2020-7-16 21:44 | 显示全部楼层
必须给予越南更大压力。
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发表于 2020-7-17 00:20 | 显示全部楼层
先阻止他国和越南合作。下一步就应该加大控制力度,可考虑部分较远油气田与第三国合作开采,掌握主动,将国际合作拉到我方轨道
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发表于 2020-7-17 03:16 | 显示全部楼层
这是上策!
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发表于 2020-7-23 09:27 | 显示全部楼层
早该如此。三天不打,上房揭瓦,猴子本性如此。
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发表于 2020-7-24 22:02 | 显示全部楼层
China’s Pressure Costs Vietnam $1 Billion in the South China Sea( K( `3 _0 F: l+ h+ U
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https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/ ... he-south-china-sea/
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3 u& D' x1 G. s0 v4 @. T. j; RVietnam is compensating international oil companies after cancelling their contracts in the dispute region over pressure from China.9 C8 f. `5 W6 T- Y
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By Bill Hayton8 P$ V: d' j, L) K+ [: N) \, Q6 q
July 22, 2020# F8 x, W# Q; F0 N( s
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Vietnam has agreed to pay around a billion dollars to two international oil companies after cancelling their South China Sea operations following pressure from China. A well-placed oil industry source has told The Diplomat that Vietnam’s state-owned energy company PetroVietnam will pay the money to Repsol of Spain and Mubadala of the United Arab Emirates in “termination” and “compensation” arrangements. In a statement, a Repsol spokesman said he “would not be willing to confirm or deny the figures” but an analysis of the company’s financial statements suggests that a very large amount of money is involved.
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; o0 s7 k/ k7 m+ s" L6 f; DThe news comes amid a new round of confrontation in the South China Sea. The Russian energy company Rosneft has been forced to suspend its plans for drilling offshore, reportedly also because of Chinese pressure. China Coast Guard vessels have been operating in the area where the drilling was due to take place. Earlier this month, both the American and Chinese navies simultaneously conducted separate large-scale exercises in the area, reminding the region of the wider strategic competition between the two. One Western oil executive with long experience in the region told the BBC that he had “never seen so much political interference in the offshore oil and gas industry in the South China Sea.”
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Repsol was once one of the largest players in Vietnam’s offshore industry, owning rights in 13 blocks of seabed. With minimal interests in China, Repsol appeared ready to withstand political pressure from Beijing. Two of its best development prospects were particularly bold: located at the far edge of Vietnam’s claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and well within the U-shaped, nine-dashed line drawn on Chinese maps since 1948.' ~3 K- y7 n- B0 S) ~- q* I
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However, in July 2017, Repsol’s partner, the state-owned company PetroVietnam, ordered it to cancel a planned exploration drill within Blocks 135-136/03. Then, on March 22, 2018 Repsol was ordered to stop a separate drilling operation while it was actually underway in the neighboring Block 07/03 (a project area known as Ca Rong Do). Repsol executives were told that this was a political decision, ordered by the very top Vietnamese leadership, following extreme pressure from China. China had assembled a flotilla of 40 naval ships off the coast of Hainan Island, about two days’ sailing from the drill site, and it appeared to be ready for confrontation.
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That now appears to have been a very costly decision for Hanoi. A regional oil industry source with knowledge of the settlement says Vietnam is paying Repsol and Mubadala $800 million for their rights in the blocks and a further $200 million in compensation for all the investments they have made in the exploration and development process. This will be a billion dollars that PetroVietnam would otherwise have paid into the Vietnamese government’s budget.& s' {  e5 d: l/ I. K! m6 s
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In its 2019 financial statement, Repsol noted that it had made provisions for combined losses of 786 million euros on projects in Vietnam, Algeria, and Papua New Guinea. The Vietnam loss was not individually detailed. In the same statement, Repsol also reported total book values of 586 million euros for its three subsidiary companies working on the affected blocks in Vietnam." |' n# g# ^/ I' w
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In a June 12, 2020 statement announcing its exit from Blocks 07/03 and 135‐136/03, the company said “The transaction [with PetroVietnam] will have no significant impact on Repsol’s financial statements.” This seems to suggest that the company will recoup its costs and losses. Although no financial details were included in the statement, the total value of those costs and losses could easily reach several hundred million dollars.: n/ G9 u. ], d" n' R. a

! \+ k# K; d* \- x1 D$ oChina’s efforts to prevent Vietnam-based companies developing oil and gas resources in the South China Sea are continuing. A drilling rig that had been standing by in the Vietnamese port of Vung Tau for two months has been stood down. Its owners, Noble Corporation, noted that the contract “includes a termination payment.” This is likely to cost Vietnam several million dollars more.
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The rig was due to drill for the Russian company Rosneft on Block 06-01, an area just north of Repsol’s former block, 07-03, and also within China’s U-shaped line. The new well was to be drilled in almost exactly the same place as an existing one – but to a deeper level. This is a site that has been in commercial production for 18 years as part of the Nam Con Son gas project, but China now feels able to prevent development there.
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In early July, a China Coast Guard vessel, Haijing 5402, was observed “provocatively” maneuvering in the area of the proposed drill site. AIS data tracked by Twitter user @SCS_news showed the vessel travelling at 15 knots to within 1.5 nautical miles of the existing Lan Tay platform. It had been assumed by most analysts that China would not want to antagonize Moscow by blocking Russian operations in Vietnam. Now it appears that Beijing feels just as comfortable scaring away Russians as it does western Europeans.# J% g- m4 X( X% w& z1 O
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There is also some mystery about Japanese operations off Vietnam. Two Japanese companies, Idemitsu and Teikoku/Inpex, in partnership with PetroVietnam, are operating on two fields, Sao Vang and Dai Nguyet, that straddle the U-shaped line in Blocks 05-01b and 05-01c. They have completed development drilling and preparatory work but have yet to install their main extracting equipment. Idemitsu says it expects to “commence producing gas and condensate in the third quarter of 2020” but they are keeping very quiet about what progress they are making.
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There is an added wrinkle in that Teikoku is currently facing a lawsuit from a London-listed company, Jadestone. Jadestone says it agreed to buy Teikoku’s share in the block four years ago but Teikoku, a subsidiary of Japan’s energy giant Inpex, has reneged on the deal. There is some speculation that the consortium, at the behest of the Japanese government, wants to keep the block as an all-Japanese arrangement to manage any threats from China that might prevent development of the fields in the future.3 i! c! t0 [; e# B. f4 p

* O3 ~' B: P& v. o2 @3 sIncidents like these are a key reason why the U.S. government issued a new statement on the South China Sea last week. In that statement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described China’s “campaign of bullying” to control offshore resources across most of the South China Sea as “completely unlawful.” The statement suggests the United States is willing to help countries like Vietnam protect their offshore oil and gas industry against Chinese intervention. The Chinese embassy in Washington described the accusation as “completely unjustified.” Nevertheless, it appears that the fight over the resources of the South China Sea is about to get hotter.
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Bill Hayton is an associate fellow in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House. He is the author of The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (2014) and the forthcoming The Invention of China.
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发表于 2020-8-25 08:48 | 显示全部楼层
要痛击越候!
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发表于 2020-8-28 09:27 | 显示全部楼层
必须给予越南更大压力。
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