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[USA] 美参议员:中国黄岩岛基地将威胁到马尼拉

发表于 2016-4-29 07:32 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 ason007 于 2016-4-29 12:43 编辑   `  D* s2 M1 Y

; }3 a0 _. ]4 }" D* `) iWASHINGTON: If China builds an artificial island on the disputed Scarborough Shoal, Sen. Dan Sullivan warned today, it will complete a “strategic triangle” of bases that can dominate the South China Sea. At this morning’s Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Sullivan displayed a map (above) of the region overlaid with the ranges of Chinese fighters striking from a triangle of bases on (1) the Chinese island of Hainan, (2) the disputed Spratly Islands, and (3) Scarborough Shoal (as yet unbuilt). The overlapping rings would cover not only almost all the South China Sea, but much of the Philippines and Vietnam.
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2 a3 |6 L, @! V0 T7 q1 t1 l“Your map’s absolutely accurate,” responded Defense Secretary Ashton Carter. China’s actions are “deeply disturbing to countries in region, which has them all coming to us….We are being increasingly invited to work with countries,” from old allies like Australia, Japan, and the Philippines to new partners like India and Vietnam.0 ?; a; L* l& B" q! w7 d' S. E* p
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Vietnam has agreed to allow the US Army to preposition equipment for humanitarian responses, in itself a major shift by Hanoi, which has fought multiple wars and skirmishes with its giant neighbor, China. As Sullivan’s diagram shows, almost all of Vietnam is in range of existing Chinese bases.
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! P; }6 R# }* g) ~7 a" |0 Z; X' uThe US has also expanded its long-standing but often-strained relationship with the Philippines. Under a new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the two countries announced in March that US forces would have access to five military bases across the country. But as Sullivan’s map makes clear, two of those five bases would be in range of Scarborough-based Chinese fighter-bombers, as would the capital city of Manila.
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“Senator Sullivan is right,” said Greg Poling, director of the much-cited Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If China built an artificial island and military base at Scarborough, as it has in the Spratlys and Paracels, it would bring the entire South China Sea within Chinese radar, air, and eventually missile coverage. It would also bing much of the Philippines, including Manila, Clark (air base), Subic (Bay), and at least two of the bases the US is getting access to under EDCA within that Chinese umbrella.”; A& \$ j' d% s; N  }1 Y2 y! U
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So far, China hasn’t started work on Scarborough, Poling and his CSIS colleague Bonnie Glaser agreed. “In the (satellite) imagery that we have obtained from DigitalGlobe, we have not seen anything,” Glaser told me. That said, given the limits of commercial imagery, she added, “we are not monitoring this 24-7, of course.”
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" p' c, M) W$ f' [# j& PThe Chinese are allegedly more active in the region. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Richardson has described “survey type of activity,” there are rumors of dredging vessels in the area (though not at the Shoal itself), and Philippine papers reporting more Chinese Coast Guard vessels, historically far more aggressive than their Chinese navy counterparts. In response, US aircraft have stepped up patrols of the area, including land-based A-10 attack planes flying from the Philippines.7 W. C6 e1 c8 e- `- E

% C8 }+ p9 R& d/ j2 ]4 iThere are also strong signals from unnamed sources and websites associated with Beijing that China will begin reclamation. Glaser, however, is skeptical. One People’s Liberation Army officer “with stars on their shoulders” told her island-building on Scarborough is “very, very unlikely,” because Beijing is well aware how badly the region would react. Such action would blatantly violate both China’s 2015 pledge to cease island-building and its 2002 Declaration of Conduct with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). China has broken both promises before, but never so egregiously as building on Scarborough would be.( E7 l( `2 @2 z+ J

0 }2 _) b# M, F! X! }“A resumption of land reclamation after stating they would stop would make the rest of the region very, very nervous,” Glaser said. “It would also be a signal, not only to the region, but also to the rest of the world that China is going to flout international law.”  ~  c3 h  ]* ~! S3 z

5 e0 O: N  j# h4 h/ M+ yDean Cheng, of the conservative Heritage Foundation, is much more pessimistic. The “strategic triangle” is practically enshrined in Chinese law, he noted: In 2012, Beijing created the prefecture of Sansha, or “Three Sands,” to administer its claimed territories in the “South Sands,” i.e. the Spratlys; the “West Sands,” i.e. the Paracels; and the “Middle Sands,” i.e. Scarborough Reef, Mischief Reef, and other areas off the Philippines.
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“The Chinese were telegraphing this years ago,” Cheng told me, and the US has put up only feeble resistance to Chinese land-grabs so far, so why would they stop? “Given how quickly the Chinese built the Spratlys, I say we’ve got maybe less than a year before the first runway gets built” on Scarborough, Cheng said.$ ?$ r7 y% j3 Z0 b) _. `) q5 s
If China did build an island, the second question would be what it built on the island. So far, high-end military capabilities like bomb-proof aircraft hangars and HQ-9 anti-aircraft batteries are restricted to the Paracel Islands, which are natural features off Vietnam, said Glaser. The artificial islands in the Spratlys have received advanced radar and runways, Poling said.+ f7 }! j6 v; R

5 D8 K5 |; |3 s/ X  iLong-range anti-aircraft missiles like the HQ-9 or the Russian-made S-400, combined with fighter jets, would dominate the airspace over the South China Sea, putting unarmed American P-3 and P-8 patrol aircraft at risk. Such missiles on Scarborough could fire right over Philippine territory into airspace off Taiwan. The Chinese will likely declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea as they did over the East China Sea, Cheng said. Long-range anti-ship missiles could hold at risk the vast volume of commercial maritime trade that passes to and from the Strait of Malacca.
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# m% N- ~$ J3 n7 o/ m4 H' ZPutting offensive capabilities like long-range missiles on the islands would be “a very destabilizing move,” said Andrew Krepinevich, former president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Such assets would be intimidating in a crisis, but so vulnerable in an actual shooting war that China would face the temptation to “use it or lose it.”1 s% Q5 b/ s1 T4 ]; r( s

1 J' q- o8 }9 d& [# h# ^“Given the small size of the islands, the missiles would be highly vulnerable, as they could not rely on mobility or hardening to provide passive defense against attack,” said Krepinevich. “They are high-value assets that are also soft targets tethered to a very small area—the island they are on.”
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“The deployment makes the most sense if you have a military doctrine that calls for striking first,” Krepinevich continued, “or if your principal purpose is not to fight, but to intimidate your much weaker neighbors in the absence of a serious effort by the United States.”
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$ S2 }0 P7 t: J. khttp://breakingdefense.com/2016/ ... ld-threaten-manila/



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发表于 2016-4-29 09:41 | 显示全部楼层
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. [  v6 D2 l7 ?8 |! r    华盛顿:如果中国在有争议的斯卡伯勒浅滩构建一个人工岛,参议员丹·沙利文今天警告说,它将完成一个“战略三角”的基地主导南海。在今天早上的参议院军事委员会的听证会上,沙利文显示地图(上图)地区的覆盖范围的中国战士引人注目的一个三角形的基地(1)中国海南岛有争议的南沙群岛(2)和(3)斯卡伯勒浅滩(还未建造)。重叠戒指不仅将覆盖几乎所有的南海,但大部分菲律宾和! K: J7 d3 {$ F* z
    “你的地图是绝对准确的,”回应国防部长阿什顿卡特。中国的行动是“深感不安的国家地区,向我们走来…。我们国家正在越来越多的邀请工作,“从老盟友澳大利亚、日本、印度和菲律宾等新的合作伙伴和) n4 L2 Q6 }( I0 Z
    越南已经同意允许美国军队介词人道主义反应,设备本身河内的重大转变,也曾多次战争和冲突的巨大的邻居,中国。苏利文的图表显示,几乎所有的越南在中国范围内现有的基地。" b1 I; F5 F* Z2 d
# v' g1 j' h3 ?: f5 |% o  q0 O    “参议员沙利文是正确的,”格雷格说跳,主任被亚洲海上透明度倡议(AMTI)战略与国际研究中心的。“如果中国在斯卡伯勒建造一个人工岛和军事基地,已在南沙和西沙群岛,它将整个南海在中国雷达、空气,并最终导弹覆盖范围。也必应的菲律宾,包括马尼拉,克拉克空军基地,苏比克(湾)和至少两个基地的美国是获得在中国内EDCA的伞下。"
$ ?3 i" {! T: ^' I$ z9 @. f( N    到目前为止,中国对斯卡伯勒还没开始工作,支撑和他的战略与国际研究中心的同事邦妮·格拉泽表示同意。”(卫星)的图像,我们从数字地球,我们没有见过,“格拉泽告诉我。也就是说,鉴于商业形象的限制,她补充说,“当然,我们不是监视这。“( T: N; d4 m+ c% X' \) K
    据说中国在该地区发挥更积极的作用。海军作战部长上将乔纳森·理查森称“调查类型的活动,有传言说疏浚船舶在该地区(虽然不是在浅滩本身),和菲律宾报纸报道更多的中国海岸警卫队船只,历史上远比中国海军同行更积极。作为回应,美国飞机加紧巡逻的地区,包括来自菲律宾的陆基- 10战机飞行。9 i* ]# O, Y$ Y& ?. L2 c/ K. g. Q
    还有未具名消息人士的强烈信号和网站相关的北京,中国将开始回收。然而,格拉泽是持怀疑态度。一位中国人民解放军军官肩上扛着星星”告诉她island-building在斯卡伯勒是“非常不可能,”,因为北京很清楚该地区严重将如何反应。这样的行动会公然违反中国2015承诺停止island-building和2002年宣言的行为与东南亚国家联盟(东盟)。中国已经承诺过,但没有那么异乎寻常地建立在斯卡伯勒。- w4 Q6 t3 ]4 H/ N3 e1 q* X# I" d
1 g0 X" q. ], H, E; y3 o    Dean Cheng保守的传统基金会要悲观得多。“战略三角”实际上是体现在中国法律,他指出:2012年,北京创建萨沙的地区,或“三沙”来管理其声称领土的“南金沙”即南沙,西沙群岛“西金沙”即;和“金沙,例如斯卡伯勒礁,美济礁,菲律宾和其他领域。  {" S& \9 g2 X' p0 J$ q7 q$ M
    “中国人透印这年前,”Cheng告诉我,和美国将只有微弱的抵抗中国征地迄今为止,为什么他们会停止吗?“鉴于中国南沙建造的速度,我说我们有可能不到一年之前第一跑道建成”在斯卡伯勒,Cheng说。! L( |! m; _8 @* K# e7 R6 `# g
    如果中国建立一个岛,第二个问题是建在岛上。到目前为止,高端军事能力防炸弹的飞机机库和HQ-9防空电池被限制在西沙群岛,这是越南的自然特性,格拉泽说。南沙的人工岛屿已经收到先进雷达和跑道,立杆说。2 D# }. e, M3 M
    远程防空导弹像HQ-9或俄罗斯s - 400,加上战斗机,将主导南海上空,将手无寸铁的美国P-3和这种巡逻机置于危险境地。这样的导弹在斯卡伯勒可能火就在菲律宾领土领空了台湾。中国可能会声明一个防空识别区(防空识别区域却)在南中国海与中国东海,Cheng说。远程反舰导弹可以持有风险商业海上贸易的巨大体积,通过与海峡/ k8 A6 X; r9 R0 U+ S; K
    把岛上的进攻能力就像远程导弹将是“非常不稳定,”Andrew Krepinevich表示,前总统的战略与预算评估中心。这些资产将恐吓在危机中,但在实际的热战如此脆弱,中国将面临“使用它,要么失去它的诱惑。( J+ q0 J- O5 r( m2 |, m, z/ v
6 N. D1 K5 x2 b! r2 C% V5 _3 P    “部署最意义如果你有一个军事学说,呼吁先发制人,“Krepinevich继续说,“或者你的主要目的不是战斗,而是恐吓你的弱很多邻居在缺乏严肃的工作由美国。”
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本帖最后由 遥望南天 于 2016-4-29 10:59 编辑
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陈铭 发表于 2016-4-29 09:45! G. p' s$ p* F/ t$ d, V
这种图贴出来请改一下,把台湾的色也调成红,不要被人利用了,要不能就不要贴出来 ...
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发表于 2016-4-29 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 遥望南天 于 2016-4-29 11:05 编辑
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到底谁威胁谁,请看这一篇文章:2 d! S! p  n# W0 c; q
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5ce1af980102w60c.html- K1 U1 P3 n1 t) }
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         (2016-03-22 22:00:18)

) k7 |+ @/ v0 P( z& q+ m: e        近日美国和菲律宾宣布,根据两国签署的安全协议,美军获准使用菲律宾的五个军事基地。这五个基地分别为邦板牙省的巴萨空军基地、新怡诗夏省帕拉延市的马格赛赛堡陆军兵营、棉兰老岛的伦维亚空军基地、中部城市宿务的麦克坦-贝尼托·埃本空军基地以及巴拉望岛的巴蒂斯塔空军基地。
) |9 R# d2 h. @9 W& O$ c7 `    包蒂斯卡空军基地,它位于巴拉望省首府普林塞萨港郊外,拥有一条约2600米长的跑道。自1976年以来,菲空军向所谓“卡拉延群岛”(即被侵占的中国南沙部分岛礁)派遣的C-130运输机、OV-10侦察机等均是从这里起飞。巴蒂斯塔基地对美军最大的诱惑力,在于其正处于新加坡与冲绳之间,同时直面南海,是美国海军反潜巡逻机进出南海中部甚至抵近海南岛侦察的绝佳跳板。
3 d$ J, p' z. r# ^+ m    巴萨空军基地是此次开放的五个基地中最重要的一个,基地拥有一条3200米长的跑道,能够满足美国目前所有重型飞机的起降条件。从美菲新达成的协议来看,巴萨空军基地最早将于2017年启用。5 }) k( z" C) n' _. R) K
   麦格塞塞堡陆军兵营则属于综合性军事设施,主要供菲律宾和盟国军人进行军事训练和实弹打靶之用,现为菲陆军训练司令部管辖。2012年以后,菲律宾政府利用美国军援资金,对该基地进行了小范围的改造,尤其是修通了圣班加德堡至马格赛赛堡的道路,使重型装备得以顺畅运输,同时还打通与乌鸦谷靶场的道路,并且圈进吕宋岛部分海岸线,便于进行两栖登陆演习。菲律宾媒体曾骄傲地宣称它是“亚洲最大的军事基地”,美菲“肩并肩”年度演习主要就在此进行。美军看上该基地,主要是因为它兼有丛林、山地、海岸甚至荒漠地形,对提升美军在复杂环境中的作战能力帮助甚大。6 B; u+ C+ }# T' u
    菲律宾曾经在美西战争后成为美国的殖民地。菲律宾独立后,美国于1947年3月14日颇似菲律宾签署了《美菲军事基地协定》,揭开了在菲扩建军事基地的序幕。美国曾经在菲律宾拥有23处陆海空基地,其中包括美国最大的海外军事基地苏比克海军基地以及重要的空军基地克拉克空军基地,菲律宾成为美国在太平洋的重要军事基地。1979年双方又修改协议,菲律宾收回基地主权,任命一名菲律宾人为基地指挥官,但美国指挥官任保留控制权。每五年对协定审查一次,1991年协定期满后,如双方同意方可延长,美国在五年内向菲提供五亿美元援助,作为对使用基地的补偿。 1983年6月美菲双方又签署一项协议,菲同意美国从1984一1989年继续使用苏比克海军基地和克拉克空军基地,美国则向菲提供九亿美元的经济和军事援助。1991年美菲军事基地协定停止,随后美国撤出了苏比克湾基地与克拉克空军基地。
! I% n9 u. x& a+ Y3 S1 b) R; L  ^    美国为了扩大亚太地区军事力量的存在,同时增强对南海的威慑力,已向菲律宾要求,要使用菲律宾八个地点的军事基地,让美国军队、战斗机和战舰停驻。同时,由于菲律宾同中国在南沙岛礁问题上存在主权争议,迫切需要拉拢美国为其撑腰壮胆。虽然目前菲律宾只为美国提供了五个军事基地,尚未满足美国八个基地的要求,但这五个基地足以对南海形成一定的威胁了。4 ]$ h; z# H3 q$ {

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