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[USA] China Can Have the Philippines

发表于 2016-11-16 08:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
http://nationalinterest.org/blog ... e-philippines-18386
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Charles V. Peña
4 m( j9 C  U. H4 wNovember 11, 2016
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Ever since Douglas MacArthur returned to the island of Leyte on October 20, 1944, the Philippines has been considered a loyal U.S. ally. In 1947, both countries signed an agreement that granted the United States the right to use military bases in the Philippines. Even after rising anti-American sentiment in the 1980s led to the U.S. military withdrawing from Clark Air Base and the Subic Bay naval base in 1992, both countries remained close. And in 2014, the United States and the Philippines negotiated an Enhance Defense Cooperation Agreement that gives U.S. forces access to certain military facilities.
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Indeed, the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty is still in effect today. But in October, Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines, announced his “separation” from the United States in favor of closer ties to China.
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; W. L* _% b3 N; G# s8 T9 @2 r+ PSo what’s a superpower to do?
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In his farewell address, George Washington warned us to “steer clear of permanent alliance.” Similarly, in his first inaugural address, Thomas Jefferson pledged “entangling alliances with none.” So rather than insist that the U.S. alliance with the Philippines is “ironclad” or “indelible,” as Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and Secretary of State John Kerry respectively put it, this is a perfect opportunity for Washington to disentangle itself.
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To begin, the Mutual Defense Treaty really isn’t mutual. It’s more like a one-way treaty because the United States doesn’t need the Philippines to be able to defend America. The U.S. military is the most powerful and technologically advanced in the world—not to mention a highly capable strategic nuclear deterrent. Moreover, the United States sits in a relatively secure geostrategic position with friendly neighbors to its north and south and two vast oceans to its east and west.
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On the other hand, Manila is highly dependent on the U.S. military since the Philippine military is largely focused on internal security.
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Philippine defense spending is only about 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). But the Philippines has a large enough economy to be able to spend more on its own defense if it feels threatened by external actors. And if Vietnam—a country with a smaller economy—can spend more on defense than the Philippines in actual expenditures and percent of GDP, the Philippines can and should spend more to protect itself. It’s not the responsibility of the American taxpayer.
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- ]1 `; X5 D% {8 R: i* F! v/ p8 wMoreover, what the Philippines really wants the United States to do is confront China over territorial claims over Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.$ y7 x& @3 u% V! I" u! ~, d+ O1 \8 q
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From a national-security standpoint, control of Scarborough Shoal does not pose a direct military threat to the U.S. homeland, which is some six thousand miles away. So there is no reason for the United States to risk war with China over it on behalf of the Philippines in a dispute over fishing rights.
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9 E  H: D  v! z/ TThe primary U.S. interest is that the sea-lanes remain open and unimpeded for the $5 trillion in commerce that flows through the South China Sea. While there is reason for some concern, Beijing has—so far—not demonstrated that it intends to close the South China Sea to free trade. And it’s important to remember that America is China’s second largest trading partner (after the European Union), so it would be economically risky for the Chinese to imperil those trading relationships.
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The Philippines knows it’s no match for the Chinese military. So, instead of continued dispute over fishing rights in Scarborough Shoal, it makes sense for Duterte to find some sort of resolution with China. But that doesn’t exclude the Philippines from having relationships with the United States (or any other country) that are also considered mutually beneficial.- P4 i2 Q" i- o5 _* M- M1 o+ b: r

8 t' t8 u! x3 I4 K8 n9 D7 nJust because Duterte wants to move closer to China over Scarborough Shoal doesn’t mean reducing or cutting off the nearly $20 billion in trade between Washington and Manila. Nor is it a reason to reduce or cut off more than $5 billion in foreign direct investment by the United States and other countries. Indeed, Duterte has since said, “It's not a severance of ties. What I mean was a separation of foreign policy.”7 V, K* S! d* H$ u8 ]$ Z3 _2 D
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So if President Duterte wants to take matters into his own hands to ease tensions with China, Washington should let him. After all, it’s in Manila’s self-interest for him to do so and it does not represent a direct threat to America. It’s a false dichotomy to assert that the Philippines must be tied only to either the United States or China. And Washington shouldn’t insist that its relationship with the Philippines exclude Manila from having any relationship with Beijing. The United States itself has relationships with both.8 v' q* `. H; e3 T2 [; d+ T8 H
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A more normal and rational relationship is one that understands and recognizes overlapping shared interests, but also respects separate self-interests—as long as those divergent interests do not represent a direct threat to U.S. national security., \- M. ^; N: p
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The United States might have to give up on having permanent bases in the Philippines, but previously losing Clark Air Base and the Subic Bay naval base for two decades did not make it any less of a superpower. Washington has an opportunity to distance itself from an obsolete security alliance that does not make America any more secure—all the while, letting the Philippines take responsibility for its own future.
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Charles V. Peña is a Filipino American and a senior fellow with Defense Priorities. He has more than twenty-five years of experience as a policy and program analyst and senior manager, supporting both the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security. Peña is the former director of defense-policy studies at the Cato Institute.

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-11-16 08:24 | 显示全部楼层
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" r( \0 l, o; }+ Z* M( J1 \9 H事实上,1951年的共同防御条约在今天仍旧有影响力.但是在十月菲律宾总统杜特尔特为了利于加强与中国关系,宣布了与美国的分离.* |5 n+ f, v4 E* `( v

+ @! [4 B2 f% H0 F9 ?所以一个超级大国应该怎么做呢?
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+ B1 f* |1 t$ I9 A1 p% |- M华盛顿在其告别演说中警告我们”避免永久性同盟”.相似的,(译者v信hooerls)在其就职演说中,托马斯,杰斐逊保证”避免与任何人混乱的同盟关系.”.所以以其坚持美国与菲律宾盟友关系的坚不可破,就如国防部长卡特与国务卿克里所说的,这对华盛顿来说是一个完美的机会来撇清自己.
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' k: i* f; f6 _+ k/ Q从一开始,共同防御条约就不是相互的.它更像一个单方面的条约,因为美国不需要菲律宾来捍卫美国.美国军事力量是世界上最强大最先进的力量,更不要说美国极强的战略和威慑力量.更多的,美国处于一个相对安全的位置,在南方和北方有友好的邻居,在东西两方有着广阔的大洋." i+ G% V! Q/ L5 g; P
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另一方面,菲律宾军事力量精力极大地集中国内安全上,马尼拉极大地依赖于美国军事力量.菲律宾防御费用只是国民生产总值的1%.但是如果菲律宾防御感受到了外部的威胁,菲律宾有足够大的经济力量使其能够花费更多在自身防卫上.而且如果越南(一个拥有的经济规模相对小的国家)能够比菲律宾在实际开支和GDP比例上花费更多在防卫上,菲律宾能够也应该花费更多来保卫其自己.而这不是美国纳税人的责任./ h& h) h8 x3 _9 Z& V) G0 g  t

5 S, H4 C/ Y9 S! ~5 Z此外,菲律宾真正想要的是让美国在南中国海上的关于黄岩岛的主权声明上直接面对中国.
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3 f5 L- ~; y# }美国最基本的利益在于南中国海上,涉及到5万亿的商业贸易规模的海路畅通无阻.然而这有一个需要关注的原因,迄今为止北京并没有表现出关闭南海自由贸易的意图.而且务必切记美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴(在欧盟之后),所以他可能有贸易风险,中国可能会危害这些贸易关系.
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菲律宾知道其无法与中国军事力量相抗衡.所以与其与中国在黄岩岛渔权上进一步争论,找到一个方法与中国解决对杜特尔特来说更有意义.但并不排斥菲律宾与美国(或其他国家)保持关系的同时与中国想要共赢.0 z8 M2 A6 }- a; r. x

" ?, E' J6 M3 L( [- P2 _杜特尔特想要在黄岩岛上靠近中国,并不意味着要减少或切断华盛顿与马尼拉之间近200亿美元的经济贸易.这也不是美国或其他国家减少或切断50亿美元外部直接投资的理由.事实上,杜特尔特后来说过”他并不是切断联系,我的意思是与美国外交政策的分离.”- v' D$ ~. n  H
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发表于 2016-11-16 08:37 | 显示全部楼层
* ]% i) b" I, x5 f8 _8 R8 G# ^3 b美国处于一个相对安全的位置,在南方和北方有友好的邻居,在东西两方有着广阔的大洋.. ——上帝青睐酒鬼和美国啊。
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发表于 2016-11-16 10:15 | 显示全部楼层
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