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[Vietnam] Is a New China-Vietnam Maritime Crisis Brewing in the South China Sea?

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发表于 2017-6-29 08:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
What are the implications of China’s abrupt cancellation of military border activities with Vietnam?
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( J4 h3 e# U$ W- v1 @% chttp://thediplomat.com/2017/06/i ... he-south-china-sea/
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8 H/ u  Q0 d* x: h& u1 OBy Carl Thayer
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June 29, 2017
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This year’s long-scheduled Vietnam-China 4th Border Defense Friendly Exchange was unexpectedly canceled, reportedly due to Chinese displeasure at Vietnam’s resumption of oil exploration activities in the South China Sea. Neither side officially has confirmed this development. This article reviews public and private information made available to The Diplomat.4 Q% n5 M# \* c- P% m0 I

  ~3 H4 g$ l: j( kOn June 12, China announced that Senior Lieutenant General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, had left Beijing to visit Spain, Finland, and Vietnam. Chinese media reported that Fan “will also attend the 4th high-level border meeting between the Chinese and Vietnamese militaries” during his visit to Hanoi.
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) C3 j9 n" M( {- ^# O( _9 I( \Fan was accompanied by a high-powered delegation that included Shao Yuanming, deputy chief of staff of the Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Department; Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA); Liu Yi, deputy commander of the PLA Navy; Song Kun, deputy political commissar of the PLA Air Force; and Yuan Yubai, commander of the PLA Southern Command.8 ~1 G0 u0 I6 b* T
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Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.* C3 U4 V. C5 i; V
Vietnam’s People’s Army Newspaper reported that Fan would make “a friendship official visit” from June 18-19. On June 13, Major General Nguyen Dai Hoi, deputy head of the Foreign Affairs Department of Vietnam’s Ministry of National Defense, announced that the fourth Vietnam-China border defense friendship exchange program would be held in the northern border province of Lai Chau and China’s Yunnan province from June 20-22 and that Fan would “co-chair the exchange program with General Ngo Xuan Lich,” Vietnam’s Minister of National Defense.* Z# b8 @# R/ Z  `3 W6 ?1 l2 ^

9 ^* K/ c, [+ e7 G- a7 d' _A discrepancy soon emerged between the public record and private reports by Hanoi-based observers concerning Fan’s visit. The public record indicates that defense relations were going well and on June 18 an agreement was reached between Lich and Fan on personnel training between their respective central military commissions under the Joint Vision Statement on Defense Cooperation to 2025, which was issued in January 2017.5 q& e; ]; V4 V' V# }' ?4 ?$ E+ d% e) S

9 A% i& B* K9 h0 C- `7 D' ?5 fInitial media reports from Hanoi and Beijing reflected discussions held on June 18 between Fan and Lich, Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong, President Tran Dai Quang and Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc. Media commentary published by both sides was upbeat and positive. For example, Xinhua quoted Trong as observing “Vietnam and China are friendly socialist neighbors, and relations between the two countries and two parties have maintained good momentum with deepening cooperation and exchanges in various fields.”% ]. i0 a6 t( S$ z( \/ Q+ _& @
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According to Xinhua, Quang said “closer friendly cooperation between the two militaries will help deepen the mutual trust between the two countries and two parties, and facilitate their fruitful collaboration.”; Z1 O" R* M: z6 E' r( H# E

+ v/ r5 Z8 z6 Z: l  b. ~Vietnam News Agency reported the two sides “agreed upon the contents and measures of cooperation in the time ahead.” Vietnam’s People’s Army Newspaper, wrote that Lich considered Fan’s visit “an important political event and a new development step in cooperative relations between the people and armies of the two nations.”
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Nhan Dan, the organ of the Vietnam Communist Party, reported that Lich said Fan’s “ongoing visit is vivid evidence of close relations between the two parties, states and armies.” The paper noted that Lich and Fan “will co-chair activities within the fourth Vietnam-China border defense friendship exchange program” from June 20-22.
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Xinhua quoted Lich as observing, “ties between the two militaries have made substantial progress in recent years, with sound cooperation in border defense, peacekeeping, and search and rescue.” According to Xinhua, Fan responded, “Thanks to the promotion of the leaders of both countries, the China-Vietnam relations are developing with good momentum and their cooperation has yielded results in various fields.”
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Fan even suggested that China align its One Belt, One Road Initiative “with Vietnam’s Two Corridors and One Economic Circle plan, and push forward pragmatic cooperation in all fields for mutual development.”
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8 b( s' d2 f& v) c9 ~2 r" oBoth Vietnamese and Chinese media reported that the South China Sea issue was raised in discussions between Fan and Vietnam’s leaders. Xinhua quoted Phuc as stating, “Vietnam is ready to make joint efforts with China to fully and effectively implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and reach agreement on a code of conduct in the South China Sea through consultations at an early date.”
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Xinhua quoted Fan’s view that “the South China Sea islands have been China’s territory since ancient times… [and] that the current situation in the South China Sea has been stabilized and is turning positive…” Fan also called on “both sides to abide by the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries and the two parties. The two sides should enhance their strategic communications and properly manage and control their differences so as to maintain their overall relations as well as the peace and stability of the South China Sea.”
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Nhan Dan, in its report of the Lich-Fan meeting, noted that “both host and guest agreed not to allow sea-related issues to affect the two countries relations.”% B4 J1 e# o* i8 P) c5 m6 Y9 q$ @7 j+ m
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It soon became clear, however, that differences emerged over Vietnam’s renewed oil drilling in the South China Sea and these differences led to the cancellation of the planned border defense exchange activities.
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It is unclear whether Fan spoke in general terms about Vietnam’s oil and gas exploration in disputed waters or specifically mentioned particular exploration blocks by name.7 v. m8 U; a: w' @; N* `9 O
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One Vietnamese source reported in a private email that Fan “raised the question to Vietnamese leaders, including PM [Nguyen Xuan Phuc], and asked Vietnam to stop drilling oil in block 136/03.” Block 136/03 is located in the Vanguard Bank. Other analysts reported that Fan mentioned block 118, also known as the Blue Whale, where Exxon Mobile is currently operating off Vietnam’s central coast.
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Vietnamese sources say the unidentified leader to whom Fan spoke responded by strongly defending Vietnam’s sovereignty. It was this verbal exchange that reportedly led Fan to withdraw China’s participation in the 4th Border Defense Friendly Exchange and to return to China abruptly.
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" E0 R& P: y$ L. t2 }7 dIt is unclear whether General Fan left Hanoi immediately on the night of June 18 or on the morning of next day. The 2017 border exchange was scheduled to commence on June 20.
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1 Q2 j/ `, [. ~! pIt should be noted that a year ago the arbitral tribunal that heard the case against China brought by the Philippines ruled that China’s nine-dash line claim to the South China Sea had no basis in international law. The tribunal also ruled that China’s claim to sovereignty based on historic rights had been extinguished when China ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
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, f' M$ L) M% y2 Z7 O( N- r' v* v2 k8 @Fan’s reported remarks on the South China Sea could be read as insinuating that Vietnam was not abiding by the “consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries and the two parties.” His reported intervention would have been inflammatory to Vietnam’s leaders for two reasons: first, because it was delivered by a military general and not a foreign ministry diplomat, and second, because it represented a reassertion of China’s nine-dash line and China’s claim to “indisputable sovereignty” over waters in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, over which Vietnam has sovereign jurisdiction.
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; `$ N4 j; b+ v3 ?9 b" G" gOn June 22, China’s Global Times reported that Vietnam had resumed oil exploration in disputed waters near the Paracel Islands this year and indirectly linked this with Fan’s cancellation of this year’s planned friendly border exchanges.. N6 J! {& @, ]( B) ]1 P" N

. p6 d, f! }4 y6 Z% I- H$ YGlobal Times did not cite official sources, but quoted civilian analyst Liu Feng as stating, “Vietnam unilaterally broke its consensus with China, which involved shelving disputes and joint development, and its move is aimed at strengthening its territorial claims over the area… Vietnam’s illegal actions undermined the stability of the South China Sea, and violated China’s sovereignty and maritime rights.”
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8 U( i3 u. F5 Y) FThe Global Times, however, confirmed that General Fan “unexpectedly cut short his trip to Vietnam” and quoted China’s Defense Ministry as reporting the border defense activities were canceled due to “working arrangements.” Global Times also linked the cancellation of the border exchange to disagreement over the South China Sea by quoting “foreign media outlets.” The Global Times further noted “no official statement has yet been made by the Vietnamese side.”
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9 E) C! Q' }6 Y6 b. ]& A$ yA Hanoi-based source privately confirmed that a Vietnamese colleague who was to have attended the exchanges was told they were canceled and to remain in Hanoi.
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This setback is a sign that China is becoming more assertive in response to potential oil exploration activities by the Philippines and actual oil exploration activities by Vietnam. But there are also other developments which, if taken together, explain Fan’s extraordinary about-face.
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These developments include: the resumption of U.S. freedom of navigation patrols in the Spratly Islands by the Trump administration on May 24; China’s interception of a U.S. Navy P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft flying over the waters near Hainan Island, also on May 24; Phuc’s back-to-back visits to Washington and Tokyo in late May and early June, where defense relations and maritime security were discussed; joint naval exercises by the United States and Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force off the coast of Korea in early June; and strong criticism of China’s behavior in the South China Sea by the Australian prime minister and the defense ministers of the United States, Australia, and Japan at the Shangri-La Dialogue, also in early June." n5 ]; U0 F$ y: E8 E1 ]

, E" R6 B8 A& u' IEvidence for the linkage of Fan’s cancellation of the border exchange activities and actions by the United States and its allies may be found in the Global Times’ coverage of Fan’s visit. The Global Times noted:
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A relaxation in the South China Sea situation is not in the desire of external powers such as the U.S. and Japan, which seek to turn the South China Sea into a place for geopolitical competition. They are more willing to see Vietnam and the Philippines make trouble for China, creating opportunities for them to interfere. They have now attached more importance to Hanoi after Manila changed its attitude.% f) ?, L& o9 o+ S# @

* P9 j/ Z. @5 u& b! Z3 {/ QThere is speculation that Fan acted on his own volition; if so his actions were clumsy as such protests are normally handled by China’s Foreign Ministry. Fan’s remarks, coming from a very senior PLA general, would have implied the threat to use military force. Fan’s remarks were also counterproductive as they were unlikely to intimidate Vietnam’s leaders. In fact, Vietnamese sources reported in private that “Vietnamese leaders rebuked [Fan], and Fan was not happy, he decided to return [to] China at night.”
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The abrupt cancellation of the fourth Vietnam-China border exchange undermines strategic trust between Hanoi and Beijing and represents the most significant setback in bilateral relations since the HD-981 oil rig incident in mid-2014., I. l" ~0 r$ U0 P1 ?8 l

( S7 z. h) V# L8 k' ^/ k$ {( Q: d8 FUncertainly hangs over whether or not Beijing will step up the pressure on Vietnam to demonstrate that Xi Jinping is a strong leader in advance of the 19th congress of the Communist Party of China. Vietnamese sources have privately speculated that China’s deployment of the mega oil drilling platform HD-981 in waters near the Paracels several days before Fan’s visit may portend a new crisis. These same sources have also circulated as yet unconfirmed reports that China has deployed 40 ships, vessels, and boats to the South China Sea.
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发表于 2017-6-29 09:31 | 显示全部楼层
( 以下为网页机译照搬,未作任何校对,仅供参考)1 l# \& T' W$ F" u# O- T
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[越南]南中国海新一轮中越海洋危机?  U7 t$ U" J0 a9 v& z
中国突然取消与越南的军事边界活动有什么影响?
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http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/i ... he-south-china-sea/0
  G- M6 T' j; ^; h. H1 f作者Carl Thayer
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6 @; Y7 m2 _, M; m据介绍,今年的越南 - 中国四国防卫友好交流会意外地被取消,据说中国不满南越在南海恢复石油勘探活动。两方都没有正式确认这一进展。本文回顾了外交官提供的公共和私人信息:
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2 `, j& `; `" }  i  U7 W6月12日电中国宣布,中央军委副主席范长龙中将离开北京访问西班牙,芬兰,越南。中国媒体报道说,他在访问河内时也将参加中越两军第四次高级别边界会议,伴随着中央军事委员会副参谋长邵远明,高级代表团,解放军参赞刘振礼;解放军海军副司令刘毅解放军空军副政委宋坤和解放军南部司令员袁玉白指挥官
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越南人民军报报道,范从6月18日至19日进行“友好官方访问”。 - {/ Q  U- u# h" u  r! \, V' ^' p: Q
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6月13日电越南国防部外事处副处长阮代海少将宣布,越南与越南北部边界省,云南省, 6月20日至22日,该省将与越南国防部长恩·阮丽奇将军共同主持交流活动。 $ ~; q2 F7 {- w3 {: h0 F8 }
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河内观察家关于范的访问的公开记录和私人报道之间很快就出现了差异。公开记录表明,防务关系进展顺利,6月18日,黎奇与范之间根据2025年1月发布的“关于防务合作联合愿景声明”的各中央军事委员会人员培训达成协议。4 o9 b# u( z. S1 c0 k; T
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来自河内,北京的初步媒体报道反映了范和利奇6月18日召开的会议,阮晋忠总书记,阮德全总理,阮晋辉总理等。双方媒体评论乐观乐观。例如,新华社援引“中越两国友好社会主义邻国”的态度,两国和两党关系保持良好势头,各领域合作交流不断加深。; O- u, f( y1 G8 O* |! t( w" ^

. m7 l9 y5 P+ n, H3 M9 O新华社说,“两军密切的友好合作关系有利于加深两国和双方的相互信任,促进双方的富有成效的合作”! n) s% I- l5 ?& j1 o/ t! e
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越南通讯社报道,双方“在未来的时间内达成了一致,认同合作的内容和措施”。越南人民军报报导,莱奇认为范的访问是“人民与人民的合作关系中的重要政治事件和新的发展步骤”两国军队“。
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越南共产党的机关丹丹报道说,李肇星说,“正在进行的访问是双方,国家和军队之间密切关系的生动证据”,文中指出,李和凡“将共同主持六月二十日至二十二日,中越越中越友好交往计划“。
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新华社援引利奇观察:“两军关系近年来取得重大进展,在边防,维和和搜救方面进行了良好的合作。”新华社回答说:“由于领导人的晋升,两国关系发展势头良好,各领域合作取得成效。“ ; a+ @. C. ~, ~1 c+ B

8 \  y8 l$ y2 g! Z1 F$ e, u范甚至建议中国把“一带一路”与越南两条走廊和一个经济圈计划挂钩,推动各个领域的务实合作,共同发展。* _' R' @9 s6 l
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越南和中国媒体都报道说,越南领导人的讨论提出了南海问题。新华社援引法新社说:“越南准备与中国共同努力,全面切实落实”南海各方行为宣言“,通过磋商达成南海方面的行为准则。早日“。新华社引述范文的观点,即“南海自古以来一直是中国的领土”,南海目前的情况已经稳定,正在转向正面。“范也呼吁”双方遵守“两国领导人和双方达成的重要共识。双方应加强战略沟通,妥善管理和控制分歧,保持南海的整体关系和和平与稳定。“% f/ Z5 G, V9 o  F9 K( v

3 c9 J1 `0 W- Z! Z9 |- MNhan Dan在其Lich-Fan会议报告中指出,“主持人和客人都同意不允许海事问题影响两国关系。”. }# E" J' p* b+ F7 E* P2 r% Q. u
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然而,越来越明显的是,越南在南海重新开采的石油钻探出现分歧,这些差异导致了计划的边防交流活动的取消。' r. V- w% y. I5 Y
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范不清是否就一般来说,就有争议的水域中越南石油和天然气勘探的具体说法,特别提到了具体的勘探区块.L $ R9 h * p“I1 z8 I* f+ J/ P/ F; T' e$ e

" d) q$ k1 ^& }5 S& z3 q  M一位越南消息人士以私人电子邮件通知,范先生向越南领导人提出质疑,其中包括PM(阮晋辉),并要求越南在第136/03号区段停止钻井。“第136/03号座位于先锋银行。其他分析师报道,范先生提到块118,也被称为蓝鲸,埃克森美孚移动目前在越南中部海岸经营。
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越南消息人士说,范先生的不明身份的领导人强烈捍卫越南的主权。据说这是一场语言交流,导致范先生撤回中国参加第四次边防交流,突然返回中国。
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6月18日晚上或第二天上午,范凡将军立即离开河内,目前尚不清楚。 2017年边境交流计划于6月20日开始,8 `6 v' k" b0 m" B

* w* O- z( ], ?* L, F应该指出的是,一年前,菲律宾所听到的针对中国的案件的仲裁庭裁定,中国对南海的九条线索赔没有国际法的依据。法庭还裁定,中国在批准“联合国海洋法公约”(“海洋法公约”)后,中国根据历史权利主张的主张已经消除。- P7 r; {* z( M( b' U7 {
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范文报道的南海问题可以说是越南不遵守“两国和两国领导人达成的共识”的说法。他所说的干预措施对于越南领导人来说有两个原因:首先是因为是由一个军事部长而不是外交部的外交官来的,其次是因为它代表了中国九条线的重申,中国对越南专属经济区的水面“无可辩驳的主权”拥有主权管辖权。
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2 u" p7 Z& S' `* X. n& G3 U  a' O* d6月22日,中国“全球时报”报道说,越南在今年的Paracel群岛附近的争议水域恢复了石油勘探,并间接地与Fan取消今年计划的友好交流。1 Q" o! x- Z7 E4 y2 W: M
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“环球时报”没有引用官方消息来源,但引用民事分析家刘锋表示:“越南单方面与中国达成共识,涉及搁置争端和共同发展,其举措旨在加强对该地区的领土权利。越南非法行动破坏了南海的稳定,侵犯了中国的主权和海事权利
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不过,“环球时报”证实,范玮根总统意外地缩短了越南的旅行时间,并引用中国国防部报道,由于“工作安排”,边防防务活动被取消。“环球时报”还将取消边境交流与引用“外国媒体”对南海的分歧。“环球时报”进一步指出,“越南方面还没有做出正式声明。”
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8 O' O% `% m4 S4 R# P一位以河内为由的来源私人证实,曾经出席交流活动的越南同事被告知被取消并留在河内。2 s0 Q* t* z, O( T) y4 u

8 [8 u/ r0 Q, }这一挫折迹象表明,中国对菲律宾的潜在石油勘探活动和越南进行的石油开采活动越来越自信。但也有其他的发展,如果一起来解释范的非凡的面孔。
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7 M0 c" l' T9 K; i这些事态发展包括:特朗普政府5月24日恢复美国在南沙群岛的航行巡逻自由;中国截取了5月24日在美国海军P-3C猎户座海上巡逻机飞越海南岛附近的水域。福克在5月下旬至6月初对华盛顿和东京进行了背靠背访问,讨论了防务关系和海上安全; 6月初,美国和日本海上自卫队在韩国海岸联合海军演习;并在六月初也在澳大利亚总理兼美国,澳大利亚和日本的国防部长在香格里拉对话中强烈批评中国在南海的行为。
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关于范的取消与美国及其盟国的边界交流活动和行动联系的证据可以在“全球时报”范Fan's访问的范围内找到。 “环球时报”指出:
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南海局势的放缓并不符合美国和日本这样的外部势力的愿望,即将南中国海变成地缘政治竞争的地方。他们更愿意看到越南和菲律宾为中国造成麻烦,为他们创造机会干预。他们现在更加重视河内,马尼拉改变态度。
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! R1 {& J/ T1 n# O. N有人猜测,范先生以自己的意愿行事;如果是这样,他的行为是笨拙的,因为抗议活动通常由中国外交部处理。范冰冰的讲话来自一位非常资深的解放军总干事,这意味着威胁要用武力。范的言论也是适得其反,因为他们不太可能恐吓越南的领导人。事实上,越南消息人士私下报道说,越南领导人斥责[范],范不高兴,晚上决定返回中国。 2 S1 U+ E0 t0 i1 m

- @+ [8 U8 A" S, R6 T, B( f- i第四次越南边境交易所的突然取消,破坏了河内与北京之间的战略信任,代表了自2014年中期以来HD-981石油钻机事件发生的双边关系最为重大的挫折。
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北京是否加紧对越南的压力,显示习近平是中国共产党第十九次大会之前的强大领导者,这一点绝对是悬而未决的。越南消息人士私下猜测,在Fan访问前几天,中国在Paracels附近的水域部署大型石油钻井平台HD-981可能会引发新的危机。同样的消息来源也散发了未经证实的报道,中国已经向南中国海部署了40艘船只,船只和船只。
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发表于 2017-6-29 10:22 | 显示全部楼层
法庭还裁定,中国在批准“联合国海洋法公约”(“海洋法公约”)后,中国根据历史权利主张的主张已经消除。
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发表于 2017-6-29 10:25 | 显示全部楼层
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