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Why India, China have failed to resolve Doklam standoff

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发表于 2017-7-28 20:04 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/sto ... oval/1/1012616.html
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Ajit Doval in Beijing: Why India, China have failed to resolve Doklam standoff
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India and China are at loggerheads over Doklam plateau in Bhutan. The two sides have failed to find a solution to the ongoing military standoff. NSA Ajit Doval is in Beijing, where he is expected to discuss ways to defuse tension between the two countries.- U: ?2 s* S* U! t& A- Q, I( C4 u

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Prabhash K Dutta& ~' k8 [8 v. K
New Delhi, July 27, 2017 | UPDATED 19:39 IST3 L/ U9 ^0 {* @) V* y% }" Q
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0 t, m' D( c. L# w( rDoklam standoff continues for over a month* a" F( S- S5 U' E
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HIGHLIGHTS$ }) c, m* X. A! O( w
1Doklam is a disputed area between China and Bhutan.
: h6 p4 i! g! F' N+ \( W/ e1 H% u2China unilaterally tried to alter border by means of road construction., Q  r$ ~. h" s. B
3On Bhutanese request, Indian Army stopped road construction by Chinese PLA.
5 Y" }; W& N; i8 RNational Security Advisor Ajit Doval is in China while the Indian Army and the People's Liberation Army are holding their posts 150 metres apart at Doklam in Bhutan.' _) N! K6 R! ]9 ~0 v5 Z/ E: e
Ajit Doval is expected to hold talks with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi on the ongoing Sikkim standoff on the sidelines of the meeting of BRICS top security officials in Beijing. Doval's visit has raised hopes that the two countries may find ways to defuse Doklam tension., l3 i7 f6 ]6 {8 Z, b
The stakes are high at Doklam for both the countries. Neither can afford to appear succumbing to the pressure built by the other. China's domestic politics has left President Xi Jinping with little option but to prolong the standoff at Doklam.7 u- e- J! N! E( d  m& |7 }, r
DOMESTIC COMPULSIONS OF CHINA; e6 u3 _) a( g
The Communist Party of China (CPC) will be holding its 19th Congress later this year. An overhaul of the party structure is expected during the Congress. Xi Jinping has been pushing for greater control over the party, which is more powerful than the government in China.
, f6 C. Y9 S, N. \' v% ^  aThe CPC directly controls the PLA through Central Military Commission (CMC). The CPC general secretary is the chairman of the CMC. The PLA will be celebrating its 90th foundation day on August 1. The foundation day celebration was supposed to be a show-off event, but under pressure from Doklam standoff.
! `2 W6 U7 ]; A  AAccording to Chinese state media, people are asking why Xi Jinping administration is not taking action against India if it really invaded territory of China. Given the public perception of the Doklam standoff in China, Xi Jinping administration cannot afford to look weak by pulling back PLA troops.
8 F3 s( I" B% b" K3 k0 t+ _CHINESE INTERNAL POLITICS; g; K1 h  }- P2 r* u
Making a surprise change in the party leadership ahead of CPC Congress, Xi Jinping removed Sun Zhengcai from his post both in Chongqing - one of the four directly controlled municipalities in China - and the politburo of the CPC.) @; V9 }0 U7 Z9 A% P+ q# E
Many observers believed that Sun Zhengcai was a potential successor of Xi Jinping. Zhengcai was one the youngest members of the politburo of the Communist Party of China and very close to former premier Wen Jiabao. Zhengcai was an obstacle in the way of Xi Jinping, who wants greater control over the party." n2 X4 U- S' ]2 f' `( I0 [# }
With this objective, Xi Jinping has asked the partymen to address him as the chairman. It started with a military parade in September 2015 in Beijing, when he was called 'shouzhang'. Jinping tried to establish his status as the 'core' of the CPC.8 ^. d% j8 e$ ?: g" d* z" u. s
No leader since Mao Zedong has been addressed as the chairman. Towering leaders like Deng Xiaoping, who oversaw Hong Kong handover negotiations, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao used the title of shouzhang when they inspected troops.
! \  c" i) Q7 r5 fNow, Jinping wants his partymen to address him as 'zhuxi', the chairman when he inspects troops on the PLA foundation day. With this, Jinping wants to convey the message to his countrymen that he is the most powerful leader in China after Mao.
( ~; n9 e" o8 b% BWith such an ambition, Jinping cannot order unilateral withdrawal of troops from Doklam. This is also why China has been harping on the 1962 war, which was fought when Mao was at the helm of affairs in China.- D8 x- E3 F/ O% M6 _+ a5 t9 R
INDIA CANNOT AFFORD TO BACK OFF
' I8 C: q; k/ D' bThere is much for India as the regional leader in the Doklam standoff. If India orders withdrawal of troops from Doklam buckling under Chinese pressure, this will diminish New Delhi's stature in the whole of South Asia.' _' T7 j% O$ T% ~
The smaller neighbours of India will never rely on New Delhi for support while dominance of China will be paramount. In the immediate effect, Bhutan will pass on to Chinese hands and in all likelihood, become second Tibet in decades to come.
# f0 N: k( _: L" j5 z( TIndia's security concerns would be highly compromised if China had its say in Doklam. The Chicken's Neck of India will be under the direct watch of the PLA. This will also result in the decisive shift by Nepal towards China.  l  f5 \( {( j+ f$ C7 `0 e
Sri Lanka has only yesterday refused to allow a military base of China at Hambantota port limiting Beijing's role to commercial activities only. If India does not stand at Doklam in defence of Bhutan, it will have its bearing on Sri Lanka and other neighbouring countries as well.1 P! j4 ~- o, S( s
LACK OF UNDERSTANDING ABOUT CHINA
+ J  K- p3 |# n% E3 l4 g/ ~' ]Many observers believe that one of the reasons for continued standoff at Doklam is the lack of understanding between the two countries. It is said that despite being neighbours, there are not enough number of experts in India and China who understand the other countries very well.& s+ }. _* z" {
Language is a major barrier for lack of understanding between the two countries. Writing in the Global Times, one Chinese columnist Long Xingchun - research fellow at the Charhar Charhar Institute and director of the Center for Indian Studies at China West Normal University - said, "There are no more than 200 China experts in India, of which 10 per cent, at the most, can read or speak Chinese. Most of these experts study China based on publications from the US and Europe and a few English publications published by China, but sadly they believe that they have been well informed about China."1 n8 s8 X# X: Z  R! ], R) v: o
The same is equally true about the Chinese analysts who are said to have expertise over Indian affairs. They are not familiar with Indian languages and have limited access to English publications on India.
8 b  k4 P! C( N( C2 ANEUTRAL STAND BY WORLD LEADERS/ P* W+ Z! T$ M
The world leaders have largely been neutral to over-a-month-long standoff between the armies of India and China at a plateau in Bhutan. Only the United States has appealed to India and China for a peaceful resolution of the standoff.
$ a: x" c6 K5 S* X$ wSpeculations are being made about how the leading global powers, including Russia and Japan, would react should the two armies clash over Doklam. Chinese, as tactics, have tried to remind India that Russia was a mute spectator in 1962.! {! J8 Q+ l) r& v+ N" `3 H
On the other hand, several strategic observers have pointed out that the US and Japan, which have interest in the South China Sea, would not be spectators in the event of an India-China war. They fear that if China is allowed to have its say against India and Bhutan, it will become more belligerent in the South China Sea.
9 \5 _+ L3 }. [7 F+ O# ]+ o, VINDIA-CHINA TRADE
9 f/ e7 C3 v4 {7 i$ YTill the initial years of 1980s, the economies of India and China were roughly equal in size. But, China made gigantic progress in the later years. Now, the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India's.
( u) W( m2 o) q# b: g7 LAs per the latest data released in January this year, the India-China trade volume stands at USD 71 billion. China is the net beneficiary by far in bilateral trade. India's trade deficit with China stands at USD 46.56 billion.  ~3 A! y# r% ]- A
India exports articles of just USD 11.76 billion while its import from China stands at USD 58.33 billion. China's economy is largely export-based. It cannot afford to lose one of the biggest markets over Doklam. But, its domestic compulsions do not allow it to back off from Doklam especially after it led a propaganda accusing India of 'invading Chinese territory'.
! I9 n0 _+ @, P( k& eThe bone of contention - Dolam area of Doklam plateau - is a disputed territory between Bhutan and China. Bhutan sought India's help in June after China tried to alter the existing borders by carrying out road construction in the disputed area. The troops from the two sides have been in an eyeball-to-eyeball encounter ever since.
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 楼主| 发表于 2017-7-28 20:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 che 于 2017-7-28 20:07 编辑
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/ V$ N5 y/ b7 e4 Q3 [  `: L/ Q2 @北京的Ajit Doval:为什么印度、中国未能解决洞朗对峙
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http://indiatoday.intoday.in/sto ... oval/1/1012616.html/ c' P# u; V9 G9 M

$ S& e3 V# I# ?9 ~0 L, S) @2 H印度和中国在不丹的洞朗高原处于僵局。双方未能找到解决持续的军事对峙的办法。国家安全顾问Ajit Doval在北京,预计将会讨论如何缓解两国间的紧张局势。
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2 I3 N1 Y  j1 v. @: LPrabhash K Dutta
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( f% ]$ y. A$ b3 v新德里,2017年7月27日|更新19:39% q/ F. f4 t" y& k* U3 M  Q
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国家安全顾问Ajit Doval在中国,印度军队和人民解放军相距150米在不丹的洞朗。
/ a. i; Z* w, d6 d预计在此之前,阿吉特·杜瓦尔将与中国国务委员杨洁篪进行会谈,讨论正在进行的锡金的对峙事宜。杜瓦尔访问提出了希望,两国可能会找到办法来缓解洞朗紧张局势。; O5 m$ _# C4 n4 Z
洞朗的这两个国家的赌注都很高。既不能屈服于另一方所造的压力。中国的国内政治使得习近平总统缺少选择,只好延长了洞朗的对峙。
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: M/ c2 l4 n8 u1 R9 y- m中国国内组合+ M; N: I$ q& @8 n( w* N
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中国共产党今年晚些时候将举行第十九届大会。预计在大会期间将对党的结构进行大修。习近平一直在推动对党的更大的控制,比中国政府更强大。
+ t: E: B$ t7 w  x6 i7 ?中国共产党通过中央军事委员会直接控制人民解放军。中国共产党总书记是中央军委主席。中国人民解放军将在8月1日庆祝其第90个建军节。建军节庆祝应该是一场炫耀活动,但受到洞朗对峙的压力。
# w6 g+ D& h) d7 M* f. |据中国国家媒体报道,人们正在问习近平政府如果印度真的入侵中国,为什么不对印度采取行动。鉴于中国公众对洞朗对峙的看法,习近平政府不能示弱,不能撤回解放军。
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中国内政
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) h( A# v' C5 K/ B习近平在党中央领导人大会前的党内领导人突击改变,将孙正才从重庆——中国四大直辖市之一——中共中央政治局重新撤职。. g. V) l  B  i. V
许多人认为孙正才是习近平的潜在继任者。郑才是中国共产党政治局最年轻的成员,非常接近前总理温家宝。孙正才是希望更多地控制党的习近平的障碍。; U0 Z! k. |+ L1 b" K, W
为此,习近平要求党员以他为主席。它开始于2015年9月在北京举行的一次阅兵式,当时他被称为“首长”。习近平试图把自己的地位作为中国共产党的“核心”。
7 d% @, Y4 m6 _( ]! C自毛泽东任主席以来,一直处于领先地位。江泽民,胡锦涛等监督香港回访谈判的邓小平领导人在考察部队时,用了首长的头衔。
9 {& k& I7 ~0 f4 |现在,习近平希望党员在解放军基金会的时候对军队进行视察,把他当作“主席”。这样,习近平想向他的同胞传达他是毛泽东后中国最强大的领导人的信息。' ?* V/ K# ~) ^! K
有了这样的野心,习近平不能下令从洞朗单方面撤军。这也是为什么中国一直在津津乐道毛泽东在中国掌权的1962年战争。
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8 ^" d4 J# Z. v2 R/ v% ]印度无法承受撤退
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洞朗对峙对于作为地区领导的印度来说意义重大,如果印度在中国压力之下撤军,这将消除新德里在整个南亚的声望。$ u& x6 o. j- y8 y- ~5 }6 _
印度的小邻国们将永远无法依靠印度的支持,与此同时,中国的的主宰将至高无上。就最直接的影响来说,布丹将与中国握手,在未来的几十年里变成第二个西藏。; T' d, q6 [) X: X, y; V
如果按照中国目前在洞朗地区的主张,印度的安全关切将大打折扣,印度的鸡脖子(西里古里走廊,译者注)将在解放军的直接威胁之下,这样将导致尼泊尔决定性地倒向中国。* O2 y- {7 @) R3 w
昨天斯里兰卡刚刚拒绝中国在汉班托特设立军事基地,仅限用于商业用途。如果印度不在洞朗站住脚跟保护不丹,将影响到斯里兰卡和其他邻国。9 m! c- r1 u# _# q) X
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缺乏对中国的了解
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许多观察家认为,在洞朗继续对峙的原因之一是两国之间缺乏了解。据说,尽管是邻国,印度和中国的专家数量还不够了解得很好。; \. M3 e/ b# S3 f& }2 H0 ?4 P( F1 a: z
语言是两国之间缺乏认识的主要障碍。中国西北师范大学印度研究中心主任,中国专栏作家龙兴春,察哈尔研究所研究员兼印度研究中心主任中国专栏作家龙兴春说:“印度只有不到200多名中国专家,其中最多只有百分之十能阅读或说中文,大部分专家都是根据美国和欧洲的出版物以及中国出版的几本英文出版物研究中国的,但遗憾的是他们相信他们已经对中国了如指掌。”
! K; g7 a* m% O) t7 o; J据说在印度事务上有专长的中国分析人士也是如此。他们不熟悉印度语言,只能有限阅读印度的英文刊物。
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世界领导人的中立立场0 Q4 w* F6 U8 ]/ Z6 ~2 n9 S
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在不丹的高原,印度和中国的军队之间的长达一个多月的对峙,世界领导人基本上处于中立态度。只有美国才呼吁中印和平解决对峙。% s/ e+ O7 q1 _& J7 E
目前正在对俄罗斯和日本等领先的全球大国如何应对两军如何在洞朗进行冲突作出猜测。中国人作为战术,试图提醒印度,俄罗斯在1962年是一个沉默的观众。1 {% h' `$ e1 r, d6 ~! S
另一方面,几位战略观察家指出,对中国南海战争感兴趣的美日不会是观众。他们担心,如果中国被允许对印度和不丹说反对意见,在南海就会变得更加好战。3 h' B% `; c9 y, a8 w) M$ o& w

9 r. w* o9 y. \. n9 Y$ i7 X印度—中国贸易
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直到八十年代的初期,印度和中国的经济规模大致相等。但是,中国在后几年取得了巨大的进步。现在中国的经济是印度的五倍。
1 }2 ^/ ~. h* J7 {( v% K& n根据今年1月发布的最新数据,印度和中国的贸易额为710亿美元。中国是双边贸易中的净受益国。印度与中国的贸易逆差为46.56亿美元。0 `+ j) z% s# g6 X; i7 n. G
印度出口117.6亿美元,而中国的进口额为583.3亿美元。中国的经济主要是出口为主。相比于洞朗,它不能失去最大的市场之一。但是,它的国内强制不允许它从洞朗撤出,特别是在它宣布指责印度“入侵中国领土”之后。0 ^8 S' s0 f1 ~: y4 [
争论的焦点——洞朗高原洞朗地区——是不丹与中国之间争议的领土。中国试图通过在争议地区进行道路建设来改变现有边界,不丹在6月份寻求印度的帮助。自此以来,双方的部队一直在眼球对峙。
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